U.S. – Russian Diplomacy Notes 10/24/15:
- The upcoming Russian, Iranian, Damascus offensive in Aleppo could represent a turning point in the war.
- If the offensive is unsuccessful then the diplomatic track should fast track the prospect of elections in Damascus for parliament and the presidency.
- Assad should be shown the door in a way that allows for him and his cronies to no longer be accepted in polite society.
- Iran seems like a suitable place of exile.
- This does not mean that International Criminal Court Tribunal of Syria (ICCTS) Charges should not be levied against those responsible.
- If we decide to fast track elections then the military must double down in Aleppo to prevent the Syrians from being successful.
- Russia must simultaneously come around to the idea that the battle is so lopsided in Syria that the idea of them defending their interest is no longer feasible.
- The military is the only blunt object that can tip the hand of the Russians in Syria in favor of an agreed settlement with the rebels.
- If the offensive is successful in Aleppo then the idea of expediting elections may no longer be a good one.
- Better to have elections eventually and have the rebels come into power. Than allow for Assad to ram elections down the throat of the Syrian people, an order to strengthen his hand, and allow for the Russians to take the initiative in the short term.
- The crux of future negotiations really does lie in the timing of elections and the U.S. military making the battlefield so uncomfortable for the Russians that they deem it in their interest to exit Syria before being drawn into a quagmire.
- Russia has been embarrassed in front of the world community for their blatant actions in defense of the Assad regime.
- Russia has shown a willingness to want negotiations to schedule upcoming elections.
- And even Iran wants Assad out of the driver’s seat.
- Russia had also shown partiality recently to the rebels fighting ISIS and has spoken openly of helping them in their struggle.
- Assad Staying in Power is unacceptable.
- The U.S. had better have a dog in the fight when it comes to free and fair elections for the Syrian people to choose a successor to Assad.
- My limited knowledge does not allow me to be able to know who this person(s) should be.