A Time For Reckoning: Suggestions For The Future Of U.S., E.U. Relations

The below attached file is my latest thesis on suggestions for the future of U.S.- E.U. Relations in the newly minted Trump Administration. The paper seeks to first briefly describe what Secretary of Defense John Mattis has described as the “Arc of Instability” currently at play in European politics. It then offers timely suggestions as to what can be done to better relations between the United States and Europe at a time of budget deficits, Russian aggression, and rising violence from Islamic Fundamentalism.

The paper can be downloaded here: a-time-for-reckoning-suggestions-for-the-future-of-u-s-e-u-relations-final

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Developing Future: World Order, Russian Intransigence, and The Security Council

Developing Future: With Russia on the ropes in Syria, and Crimea, and Putin relegated to Pariah status, it’s no wonder then that a lane seems to be opening up for the Russian’s, and other rogue state actors to begin to foment the what seems to be the start of an organizational shift which could lead to, Asian, European, and African countries led by Russia into a separate world order wholly corrupt, and morally bankrupt, but nonetheless a separate world order different than the one now currently situated.

For: Allow the possible countries to redefine the global rules on trade, and human rights.

Allow for a return to post WW2 posturing between the U.S. and Russia, albeit illegitimately, and on a much smaller scale.

Dictate the global price of rare, and superfluous commodities to non aligned and aligned countries alike. (diamonds, gold, rare earth minerals, oil)

Allow for the proliferation of arms sales which would coincide with a more militant animus in chosen, and unchosen regions of the world.

Allow for the appearance of sticking it to the “evil imperials” gaining instant street credence among other pariah states, and stateless actors.

Against: Politically, Economically, socially, morally, the consequences could simply be too much to bear for Russia.

The loss of pivotal transit lanes and customers for exports

Economically unsustainable

Politically catastrophic as the amount of capital spent attempting would send Russian markets and assets into a tailspin forcing out the current government almost assuredly.

Lack of basic goods would hamper the growth of already stagnant Russian society birth rate.

Russia risks forfeiting international prestige for the benefit of outlier states either once controlled by the soviets, or influenced by them, the expense of their own seat at the economic, and political table.

Guns but no Butter: the Russians would risk almost everything they have currently for a future that guarantees them clients for their stated goal of becoming the worlds largest arms supplier. However the ostracizing inherent in the steps they would have to take to get to that point would make the selling of arms obsolete due to no aftermarket for currency.

Episodes of Russian Intimidation: 

Kosovo’s permanent representative to the UN, Vlora Çitaku by my analysis of the Security Council’s official photos for the day of the 16th of November, 2016, was publicly read the riot act and other disdainful behavior by Ivica Dačić the Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Affairs Minister.

By observing the photos one is able to detect a series of social cues and slights from opposing parties while present in the security council chamber, aimed at one another respectively. Minister Dačić seems to be relying on the fact that he is a high ranking Serbian politician of a certain age to publicly discredit Ambassador Çitaku who was only a child at the time of the massacres in Srebrenica, and the mass graves found throughout Kosovo, which was led by former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. Ambassador Çitaku is a survivor of that ethnic cleansing campaign.

 

Russia during its presidency of the UN Security Council in September of 2015 held a UNSC meeting which last more than six and a half hours. In other words the sole nation propping up the Assad regime, themselves a pariah state, held a meeting on that very subject for upwards of six and a half hours.

There has also been intransigence by Syria’s ambassador to the UN, Bashar Ja’afari. In one recent Security Council Meeting Ja’afari went on a anti-semetic screed about the Israeli’s and their Military Industrial Complex for its procurement of Nuclear missiles to defend themselves from enemies in the region.

Even taken out of context such actions are unjustifiable by the Russian’s and their proxies both in the Security Council, as well as on the ground in Ukraine, Syria, and this is more recent, Kosovo should not be tolerated. If we are to deter Russia, and defend our allies both in Russia’s near abroad(as defined by Russia itself), and the greater regional struggles which have been precipitated by them, then it is incumbent upon the United States as the sole guarantor of peaceful relations between countries, and the safe, and orderly conducting of business between rational actors, to meet these crises head-on and not shy away from the ugly truth and the international laws, and norms which the Russian’s callously flaunt before the International Community.

E.U. Representative Federica Mogherini At The Atlantic Council: Link to Live Event

Live Stream of Federica Mogherini at the Atlantic Council. Live February 10, Beginning at 2pm EST Link Below:

 

 

Russian Syrian War Expenditures Said to Top $800 Billion

In an exclusive contextual analysis of World Bank economic figures, it has been determined that Russia has expended in excess of $800 Billion US dollars in the war in Syria. Russia, whose involvement in the war, if the numbers are to be believed, goes back to at least 2011, and recently required them to Sell a Large Stake in Gazprom to a Mystery Buyer. All this comes at a time where the battle for Aleppo has forced Russia, and Syria, to expend vast sums of money against battle hardened rebel groups supported by the United States.

The numbers which paint a story that was mostly intact through the narrative in the media reveals that during the year 2011, shortly after the Arab spring protest erupted in Syria, and turned violent, the Syrian government was vouchsafed a sum totaling in excess of $105 Billion US dollars to put down the protest. In the following year, 2012 — when the protest had by then morphed into a civil war, the sum is increased by 77% with a lump sum, or added value injection of currency equal to $136 Billion US dollars. The amounts from their begin to vary radically from year to year with an estimated $224 Billion being expended in 2013,  $901 million in 2014, before the amounts multiply again, coinciding with the stepped up presence of Russia in Syria, topping out at $322 Billion in 2015 before again bottoming out in 2016 where an estimated $935 Million was actually taken from Syria’s coffers. If the numbers are to be believed the astronomical price which the Russian’s paid to keep Assad in power comes in at a cool $809 Billion Dollars.

For all of this it seems that the Russians may have, or could recoup almost all of the money by the aforementioned sale of a stake in Gazprom, a Russian company which keeps notoriously opaque books. If this is true it would put the Russian governments finances back on steady ground, though at the expense of relinquishing control of one of the glittering crown jewels in the governments business portfolio. As for Assad, and Syria its estimated through the numbers released by the World Bank that Syria owes to short term debtors in excess of $1 trillion US dollars, with Assad personally owing at least 10% of that or $100 billion. The future of Syria after a war which has displaced 2 million people and which has killed untold scores more is still up in the air.

The current atmosphere in the world is one of mistrust as two of the worlds biggest countries, the United States, and Russia, squared off fighting a proxy war between each other in Syria which has left many wondering what is next.

PDF File of Syrian World Bank, and Kevin’s Politics Blog Numbers can be Found Here: russian-syrian-war-support-figures

 

On the Vagaries of United States Debt Restructuring

Complications arising from a reimagining of the ferment of U.S.-E.U. transatlantic relations are inevitable. This is especially true when talking about matters concerning money, particularly between close friends. This is why it is prudent for the U.S., as well as the E.U. to establish proper guidelines and safe measures an order to facilitate a furtherance of the unique, and special relationship which each has with one another, as well as having a frank and more than general understanding of one another’s ambitions in not only the current world order, but also in the unforeseen which could arise from the well established ambitions of near peer adversaries. The ironing out of mechanics of the avenues to redress issues arising from the lack of payment, or ill-timed missed payment of debt for European Union Bonds outstanding from the United States asoutlined in the

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previous paper concerning debt restructuring should naturally be detailed before hand. This is not to say that the current byzantine apparatus of European Union decision making is adequate. As judging by the standards of the modern policy making process here in the United States. However for feasibility sake, so long as the European Union has the authority from all nations involved, command and control can be proven to work under real world time constraints, and the ability for jointness to prevail over disorder, and the normal chaos, and fog of war is orderly, and manageable, then I see no reason for the aforementioned restructuring of U.S. sovereign debt to take place. However if the E.U. seems content in the sédentaire of bureaucracy, and complacent with the as yet unresolved dismantling of combat brigades throughout the continent, and the escalation of Debt-GDP, and it’s effects on living standards, then the most prudent logic would be to back away from any and all initiative, and reassess the situation as it currently stands. This is not an indictment of the European polities, I see much hope; aspirant, and realized around the continent, but rather a good friend who wishes nothing but the best for an old but not forgotten companion, both for now and the future…of all of Europe.