Developing Future: With Russia on the ropes in Syria, and Crimea, and Putin relegated to Pariah status, it’s no wonder then that a lane seems to be opening up for the Russian’s, and other rogue state actors to begin to foment the what seems to be the start of an organizational shift which could lead to, Asian, European, and African countries led by Russia into a separate world order wholly corrupt, and morally bankrupt, but nonetheless a separate world order different than the one now currently situated.
For: Allow the possible countries to redefine the global rules on trade, and human rights.
Allow for a return to post WW2 posturing between the U.S. and Russia, albeit illegitimately, and on a much smaller scale.
Dictate the global price of rare, and superfluous commodities to non aligned and aligned countries alike. (diamonds, gold, rare earth minerals, oil)
Allow for the proliferation of arms sales which would coincide with a more militant animus in chosen, and unchosen regions of the world.
Allow for the appearance of sticking it to the “evil imperials” gaining instant street credence among other pariah states, and stateless actors.
Against: Politically, Economically, socially, morally, the consequences could simply be too much to bear for Russia.
The loss of pivotal transit lanes and customers for exports
Politically catastrophic as the amount of capital spent attempting would send Russian markets and assets into a tailspin forcing out the current government almost assuredly.
Lack of basic goods would hamper the growth of already stagnant Russian society birth rate.
Russia risks forfeiting international prestige for the benefit of outlier states either once controlled by the soviets, or influenced by them, the expense of their own seat at the economic, and political table.
Guns but no Butter: the Russians would risk almost everything they have currently for a future that guarantees them clients for their stated goal of becoming the worlds largest arms supplier. However the ostracizing inherent in the steps they would have to take to get to that point would make the selling of arms obsolete due to no aftermarket for currency.
Episodes of Russian Intimidation:
Kosovo’s permanent representative to the UN, Vlora Çitaku by my analysis of the Security Council’s official photos for the day of the 16th of November, 2016, was publicly read the riot act and other disdainful behavior by Ivica Dačić the Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Affairs Minister.
By observing the photos one is able to detect a series of social cues and slights from opposing parties while present in the security council chamber, aimed at one another respectively. Minister Dačić seems to be relying on the fact that he is a high ranking Serbian politician of a certain age to publicly discredit Ambassador Çitaku who was only a child at the time of the massacres in Srebrenica, and the mass graves found throughout Kosovo, which was led by former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. Ambassador Çitaku is a survivor of that ethnic cleansing campaign.
Russia during its presidency of the UN Security Council in September of 2015 held a UNSC meeting which last more than six and a half hours. In other words the sole nation propping up the Assad regime, themselves a pariah state, held a meeting on that very subject for upwards of six and a half hours.
There has also been intransigence by Syria’s ambassador to the UN, Bashar Ja’afari. In one recent Security Council Meeting Ja’afari went on a anti-semetic screed about the Israeli’s and their Military Industrial Complex for its procurement of Nuclear missiles to defend themselves from enemies in the region.
Even taken out of context such actions are unjustifiable by the Russian’s and their proxies both in the Security Council, as well as on the ground in Ukraine, Syria, and this is more recent, Kosovo should not be tolerated. If we are to deter Russia, and defend our allies both in Russia’s near abroad(as defined by Russia itself), and the greater regional struggles which have been precipitated by them, then it is incumbent upon the United States as the sole guarantor of peaceful relations between countries, and the safe, and orderly conducting of business between rational actors, to meet these crises head-on and not shy away from the ugly truth and the international laws, and norms which the Russian’s callously flaunt before the International Community.